Where California High School

Students Attend College

Michal Kurlaender

Sherrie Reed

Kramer Cohen

Matt Naven

Paco Martorell

Scott Carrell

December, 2018

The research reported here was supported through the generosity of the Stupski Foundation

and by the Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education, through Grant

R305E15000 to the Regents of the University of California. The opinions expressed are

those of the authors and do not represent views of the Stupski Foundation, the Institute of

Education Sciences or the U.S. Department of Education, or of the state agencies providing

the data.

Where California High School

Students Attend College

Michal Kurlaender

Sherrie Reed

California policymakers and educators have little information about the college destinations

of high school graduates. To fill this information gap, we assembled a unique data set of

three recent cohorts of public high school students matched with college enrollment data

from the National Student Clearinghouse. This report, a product of a partnership with the

California Department of Education, details where California public high school students

attend college and how college attendance and destinations vary by county.

attend four-year colleges, than male students.

college at lower rates than their more advantaged peers.

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earnings premium, as it is often referred to, has grown tremendously over the past

several decades, and college degree attainment is the surest way to safeguard economic

prosperity for individuals and for society at large. High school students have largely

registered the college refrain, and, as such, enrollment continues to rise. Total enrollment

in public colleges and universities in the U.S. increased by 11% since 2006 (from 9.4 million

to 10.4 million), and by 13% in California during this time period (College Board, 2018).

educators in school systems across the state lack basic information about the college

data from the National Student Clearinghouse. Specifically, we detail college enrollment

for all California public high school students by key student subgroups and by county.

We focus on enrollment by degree type (two-year/four-year), sector (public/private), and

location (in-state/out-of-state).

1

The most recent high school graduation cohort for which college enrollment data was obtained from National Student

Clearinghouse and reported by the California Department of Education was 2008-2009. In addition, Public Policy Institute

of California released maps of college enrollment in California counites using more limited data in 2010. Available here:

https://www.ppic.org/data-set/maps-of-college-enrollment-rates-in-californias-counties/

primary data source is 11th grade student scores on California’s standardized assessments

(i.e., STAR/CST and CAASPP/SBAC) along with demographic data including gender, race/

ethnicity, a socioeconomic status indicator, and high school of enrollment. We match

these K-12 data to individual-level data on college enrollment obtained from National

Student Clearinghouse for 11th grade students in 2012-2013, 2013-2014, and 2014-2015.

If on track to complete high school in four years, these student cohorts would have

graduated high school in the spring of 2014, 2015, and 2016 respectively.

statistics by institution type and by student subgroup for each of the 58 counties in

California.

(NSC) data. In particular, they calculate NSC coverage rates—identifying the extent to which students who are enrolled in

college do not appear in NSC—over time, by state, college type, and demographic subgroups. Coverage rates for California

in 2011, the last year reported in Dynarski et al. (2015), rank 25 out of 50 states and DC at 93%.

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As students may be enrolled for multiple terms at multiple institutions during the year and a half after their expected high

school graduation, we selected the term and institution for analysis as follows: Records from the first fall term post expected

graduation were prioritized over records from the first spring term over records from the second fall term. If there were not

records from any of these terms, records with the earliest enrollment date were selected. If after limiting a student’s term of

interest for the analysis, there were still multiple records to choose from, records from four-year colleges were prioritized

over records from two-year colleges over records from less than two year institutions. If there were still multiple records for

a student, records were sorted first by enrollment start date and then by enrollment end date, with the first record kept.

We report summary statistics of institutional types by subgroups when enrollment meets our minimum reporting

requirements (>15). All enrollment numbers—in addition to the percentages reported here—are available in the Appendix

(available online).

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College Enrollment: Two-Year and Four-Year

the year and a half following high school graduation (Figure 1). About 26% of high school

students enroll in a four-year college and 37% enroll in a two-year college.

Figure 1: College Enrollment Rates of California Public High School Students

College Enrollment: In-State and Out-of-State Among Enrollees

the state of California (Figure 2). Only 11% of students from California public high schools

attend college at out-of-state institutions.

Figure 2: In-State and Out-of-State Enrollment of California Public High School Students

College Enrollment: Two-Year and Four-Year, Public and Private, Out-of-State

in public four-year campuses in-state (18% at CSU, 10% at UC), 57% enroll in public two-

year in-state community colleges, and an additional 4% enroll in private in-state colleges

(the vast majority of in-state private institutions are four-year) (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Institution of Enrollment of California Public High School Students Who Enroll

in College

of students that enroll in two-year colleges versus four-year colleges (Figure 5). Again,

Marin and San Francisco Counties have the largest proportion of students (46% and 44%,

respectively) enrolling in four-year colleges. In contrast, Imperial County has the highest

rate of two-year college enrollment at 54%.

18%

57%

11%

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Figure 4: College Enrollment Rates Across California Counties

Figure 5a: College Enrollment Rates of California Public High School Students,

Note: Alpine County statistics are not depicted in this graph because the number of high school students in each category

does not meet our minimum requirements for reporting.

San Mateo

Placer

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college within a year and a half of completing high school. Nationally, about 70% of high

school completers enrolled in college by the October immediately following high school

completion (National Center for Education Statistics, 2018). California boasts one of the

highest rates of two-year college enrollment among college-goers at 57%, compared with

the national rate of 43% (College Board, 2018). Substantial disparities in college enrollment

exist by student subgroups, particularly in some counties. Moreover, college destinations

remain highly stratified by student background (socioeconomic status and race/ethnicity).

evident in the fact that there is no systematic tracking of students’ educational trajectories,

leaving educators without critical information regarding the outcomes of their students.

California public high school students is overdue; the last time California provided this

information was nearly a decade ago. Notwithstanding, the California Department of

Education continues to emphasize and invest in college and career readiness through

comprehensive eorts to reform college readiness standards, aligned assessments,

and accountability metrics such as the College/Career Indicator. Yet, in an era of

intense “college for all” ethos, the lack of regularly available information about students’

make informed decisions. It also creates challenges for organizations seeking to promote

and improve college and career readiness.

ethnicity and other background characteristics exist in both overall enrollment and

the decision to enroll in college, where to enroll, and ultimately, college degree attainment.

California Competes (2018). Out of the dark: Bringing California’s education data

Dynarski, S. M., Hemelt, S. W., & Hyman, J. M. (2015). The missing manual: Using National

Johnson, H., Cuellar Mejia, M., & Bohn, S. (2015). Will California run out of college

U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2017). Table 302.30:

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Michal Kurlaender is Professor of Education Policy at the University of California, Davis,

and Faculty Co-Director of Policy Analysis for California Education. Kurlaender investigates

students’ educational pathways, in particular K-12 and postsecondary alignment, and

access to and success in college. Kurlaender works closely with all three of California’s

public higher education sectors—the University of California, the California State University

and the California Community College systems.

Sherrie Reed serves as Executive Director for California Education Lab located in the

School of Education at the University of California, Davis. Her research interests include

education policy, specifically accountability, charter schools, school finance, college

and the eect of educational systems on historically underrepresented students. Prior

to attending UC Davis, Kramer was a research associate at the Public Policy Institute of

California and taught at San Francisco State University.

Matt Naven is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Economics at the University of

California, Davis. His primary research interests are public economics and the economics

of education, with particular interest in increasing college access for low-income students.

Paco Martorell is Associate Professor in the School of Education at the University of

California, Davis. His work is in the economics of education, with a focus on financial aid,

and the impacts of school facility investments. Prior to joining the faculty at UC Davis,

Martorell was an Economist at the RAND Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND

Graduate School.

Scott Carrell is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Davis. His primary

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